WARSAW, June 1, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Poles are set to vote on Sunday in a knife-edge presidential election with major implications for the country's role in Europe and for abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Warsaw's pro-EU mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, an ally of the centrist government, faces off against nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42.

Opinion polls predict an extremely close race with Nawrocki on 50.1 percent and Trzaskowski on 49.9 percent, a tiny difference within the margin of error.

Polls are open between 0500 GMT and 1900 GMT in the EU and NATO country, which borders Ukraine and has been a key supporter of its neighbour against Russia.

An exit poll is expected as soon as ballots close and election officials predict the final result will be known on Monday.

A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for the progressive agenda of the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council president.

It could mean significant social changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and an easing of the near-total ban on abortion.

Presidents in Poland, a fast-growing economy of 38 million people, have the power to veto legislation and are also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Victory for Nawrocki would embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023, and could lead to fresh parliamentary elections.

Many Nawrocki supporters want stricter curbs on immigration and advocate for conservative values and more sovereignty for the country within the European Union.

"We should not give in to European pressure," 40-year-old Agnieszka Prokopiuk, a homemaker, said ahead of the vote.

"We need to make our own way... and not succumb to trends from the West," she told AFP in the city of Biala Podlaska in eastern Poland near the Belarus border.

Tomasz Czublun, a 48-year-old mechanic, said: "The European Union is important but the sovereignty of our country is much more important."

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Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a politics expert, called the election "a real clash of civilisations" because of the wide policy differences between the candidates.

Many Trzaskowski voters support greater integration within the EU and an acceleration of social reforms.

Malgorzata Wojciechowska, a tour guide and teacher in her fifties, said Polish women "unfortunately do not have the same rights as our European friends".

"I hope that Rafal Trzaskowski will relaunch the debate on abortion so that we can finally live in a free country where we can have our own opinion," she told AFP.

The election is also being closely watched in Ukraine, which is seeking to bolster international diplomatic support in its negotiations with Russia as its resistance to Moscow's invasion grinds on.

Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

He used his last campaign hours on Friday to leave flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.

"It was a genocide against the Polish people," he said.

The election's final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki.

Far-right candidates got more than 21 percent of the vote in the election's first round, which Trzaskowski won by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki.