DHAKA, July 2, 2026 (BSS) - A monsoon depression is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal in July, which may trigger heavy rainfall across Bangladesh, according to the monthly climate outlook of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

In its Long Range Weather Forecast for July 2026 issued today, the BMD said one to two low-pressure systems are likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal, and one of them may intensify into a monsoon depression.

The forecast said rainfall is expected to remain normal across the country during the month. Thunderstorms may occur on 8-9 days in different parts of Bangladesh.

Day and night temperatures are likely to remain above normal, while one to two mild heatwaves (36-37.9^øC) may affect isolated areas during July.

The BMD also warned that water levels of major rivers may rise overall due to monsoon rainfall, increasing the risk of short-term flooding in the northern, northeastern, and southeastern regions.

A meeting of the Expert Team on Long-Range Weather Forecasting was held on July 1 at the Storm Warning Centre in Dhaka, where meteorological data for June 2026 were analyzed.

The analysis showed that Bangladesh recorded below-normal rainfall in June, with a deviation of -29.4 percent. The southwest monsoon onset occurred on June 11.

Rainfall was normal in Rangpur Division, while Mymensingh and Sylhet experienced above-normal rainfall. The remaining divisions recorded below-normal rainfall.

Moderately heavy to heavy rainfall occurred in several spells during June, while light to moderate rain with thunderstorms and gusty winds prevailed across much of the country.

The highest daily rainfall of 178 millimeters was recorded at Netrokona on June 12.

A mild to moderate heatwave affected parts of the country during several periods in June, with the highest maximum temperature of 38.6øC recorded in Jashore on June 4. The lowest minimum temperature was 18.5øC at Narsingdi on June 19.

The monthly mean temperature was 0.5øC above normal, while maximum and minimum temperatures were 0.9øC and 0.1øC above normal respectively, the BMD said.

Overall, the weather conditions in June-including rainfall, temperature, heatwave activity, thunderstorms, agro-meteorological and river conditions-were broadly consistent with the monthly outlook, it added.