LISBON, May 16, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Portugal's general election campaign ends on Friday for a vote that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro is expected to win but with no guarantee he can form a more stable government.

Montenegro's centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is tipped to win 32.5 percent of the vote, ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) on 26.5 percent, according to a poll of polls by Radio Renascenca.

The recently formed far-right Chega ("Enough") party could take 17.6 percent of the vote -- almost the same as it did in March 2024 elections -- to consolidate its position as Portugal's third political force.

Montenegro as a result risks finding himself again at the head of a minority government, caught between the PS, which was in power from 2015 to 2024, and Chega, with which he has refused to govern.

Sunday's election was called in March after the 52-year-old lawyer lost a vote of confidence in parliament following criticism that his consultancy firm created conflicts of interest.

As such, "staying in power would already be a good result" for the prime minister, who took a "calculated risk" in the hope of strengthening his parliamentary seat, political commentator Paula Espirito Santo told AFP.

Opinion polls appear to indicate an AD majority is unlikely but Montenegro could win the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which is predicted to secure 6.4 percent of the vote.

"What we want is a bigger majority," said Montenegro on Friday.

- 'Political games' -
The socialist candidate Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, has again accused Montenegro of having engineered elections "to avoid explaining himself" about his consultancy firm to a parliamentary inquiry.

Faced with the risk of persistent instability, analysts and voters criticised a political class out of touch with voters unenthused by the prospect of another ballot.

"I've really had enough of all these political games. They don't do anything for us," said Maria Pereira, a 53-year-old saleswoman in a working-class district of Lisbon.

"Normally I vote for the small parties but this time I'm not going to waste my time going to vote."

"These elections could have been avoided," added Pedro Paulos, a 43-year-old private hire driver.

"Last year I voted for the AD. Now it's likely that I'll vote for Chega because I want a real change," he said, adding that he was "against uncontrolled immigration".

Under the socialists, Portugal became one of Europe's most open countries but Montenegro's government has since strengthened immigration policy.

Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.

Immigration and suspicions about the prime minister might be fertile ground for the far right.

But Chega has also faced embarrassment, including claims that one of its lawmakers in the Azores stole luggage from airport carousels.

Its campaign was interrupted on Tuesday and Thursday when its president, 42-year-old former football commentator Andre Ventura, fell ill.

All political campaigning has to stop at midnight (2300 GMT Friday) before Sunday's poll.