Russian Ukraine advance accelerates for third consecutive month: AFP analysing ISW data

BSS
Published On: 01 Jul 2025, 15:15

PARIS, July 1, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Russia's military advance in June accelerated for a third consecutive month and made its largest advance since November, according to AFP's analysis of data from US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Russian army took 588 square kilometres (227 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in June, compared with 507 square kilometres in May, 379 square kilometres in April, and 240 square kilometres in March, according to ISW data.

Moscow's advance had slowed during the winter.

Except for the early months of the war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, only October (610 square kilometres) and November (725 square kilometres) of last year saw larger Russian advances than those of June 2025.

Two-thirds of last month's Russian advances were in the eastern Donetsk region, the main area of Russia-Ukraine clashes for the past two years.

Moscow now fully or partially controls three-quarters of the Donetsk region, compared to 61 percent a year ago on the same date.

However, the Russian army has also made unprecedented progress over the past year in other regions, covering nearly 200 square kilometres.

On June 8, the Russian army announced an attack in the industrial eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and entered it for the first time in the three-year offensive, although its gains in this region are currently limited to just 8 square kilometres.

The Ukrainian military denies that Russian forces have gained any foothold in Dnipropetrovsk.

The Russian army has also strengthened its control in the northeastern Sumy region.

Absent from this region since April 2022 because of their redeployment to the eastern front, Moscow's troops returned this spring, recapturing nearly 320 square kilometres since the beginning of 2025, including 130 square kilometres in the past month.

More broadly, the last 12 months have shown significant Russian army progress in Ukraine.

From July 2024 to June 2025, the Russian army captured nearly 5,500 square kilometres against 1,215 square kilometres in the previous twelve months.

However, these Russian advances account for less than 1 percent of pre-war Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbass.

At the end of June, Russia exercised full or partial control over nearly 19 percent of Ukrainian territory.
 

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