PRAGUE, Sept 29, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Billionaire ex-premier and self-described "Trumpist" Andrej Babis's party looks set to top the Czech general election next weekend, possibly drawing the Ukraine ally closer to EU mavericks Hungary and Slovakia.

The Czech Republic's current centre-right coalition government, in power in the EU and NATO member since 2021, has supported Kyiv in the face of Russia's invasion, welcoming war refugees and providing military aid.

But Babis's return to power could spell rocky relations with both Kyiv and Brussels.

Describing himself as a "peacemonger" calling for a truce in Ukraine, Babis has rejected sending military aid and vowed a "Czechs first" approach.

He is on good terms with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico, who both foster close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In 2024, Babis and Orban co-founded the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, which also comprises France's National Rally among other parties.

"It's no exaggeration to say the vote will determine Czechia's geopolitical position," Petr Just, a political analyst at the Metropolitan University in Prague, told AFP.

- 'Russia's collaborators' -

The 71-year-old Babis, who served as premier in 2017-2021, owns the sprawling farming and chemicals group Agrofert and is the seventh-wealthiest Czech according to Forbes magazine.

Ahead of the election to be held Friday and Saturday, Babis's ANO movement is leading the polls with about 30 percent support in the country of 10.9 million people.

Polling second at 20 percent is the Together grouping led by outgoing right-wing Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

Whoever comes out on top will almost certainly have to negotiate with smaller parties to form a government.

Fiala, a 61-year-old former political science professor, said on X that "we must not lose our country's destiny to Russia's collaborators", warning against an ANO-led government.

Fiala's Together won the last election in 2021 by a hair's breadth, edging ANO -- long tipped as the winner -- at the last moment.

But analyst Just said a similar surprise was unlikely this time.

"The government always comes from a worse position. Polls show the government is also losing its own voters blaming it for failing to keep its promises," he said.

Fiala is under fire for paying too much attention to war-ravaged Ukraine and ignoring problems at home.

Critics blame the government for failing to lower taxes, raise teachers' wages, and reform the judiciary.

- 'Complicated' -

Babis, on the other hand, is facing a fraud trial after allegedly taking his farm out of Agrofert to make it eligible for an EU subsidy for small companies in 2007.

He has also been under investigation in France since 2022 for suspected money laundering and tax fraud over the acquisition of a castle on the picturesque French Riviera.

Babis is also dogged by allegations that he served as a secret police agent when former Czechoslovakia was ruled by Moscow-steered Communists.

The Slovak-born tycoon, who is sympathetic to the policies of US President Donald Trump, rejects all allegations as a smear campaign.

He has also vowed to resolve his conflict of interest as a businessman and politician, without saying how.

But President Petr Pavel, who will appoint the new government, has suggested he may have a problem tapping Babis as premier given his woes.

ANO's potential partners after the elections could be the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) movement and the far-left Enough! movement, which both want a referendum on leaving the EU.

"The talks after the elections will be rather complicated and probably long," Just said.