DHAKA, Aug 5, 2025 (BSS) – From over double digits a year ago, the general point to point inflation rate has dipped far below the two digits over the last one year thanks to the prudent macroeconomic management and policies by the interim government offering tentative signs of economic stabilization.

Before the ouster of fascist Sheikh Hasina regime in the wake of massive and bloody student-led mass uprising last year, the country was reeling on severe mismanagement in the macroeconomic front leading to disruption in the supply chain, debacles in the socio-economic sector and high inflation amid sufferings from the commoners.

But, with the changeover of power and with the passage of time, things became changed during the interim government over the last one year as the inflationary pressure has now subdued mostly.

In the month of July 2024, a few days before the fall of the dictator Sheikh Hasina regime on August 5, 2024, Bangladesh's general point-to-point inflation reached 11.66 percent, a 12-year high. 

This was primarily driven by a surge in food inflation, which hit 14.10 percent, the highest in at least 13 years. Non-food inflation also increased, reaching 9.68 percent.

But with the passage of time in June 2025, the point-to-point food inflation declined significantly to 7.39 percent, the lowest over the last two years. The point-to-point food inflation in May, 2025 was 8.59 percent, showed data from BBS.

Meanwhile, the non-food inflation rate also showed a declining trend reaching 9.37 percent in June, 2025, down from 9.42 percent in May, 2025.

The point-to-point inflation rate declined in both the rural and urban areas last month.

The overall inflation dropped to 8.48 percent in June, down from 9.05 percent in May.

This marks the lowest reading in 35 months and the first time since March 2023 that inflation has fallen below 9 percent.

The decline was driven by a fall in both food and non-food prices. Policymakers and economists say this suggests early signs of improvement in the country's macroeconomic situation.

Talking to BSS on the overall successes of the government in curbing inflation, Planning Adviser Dr Wahiduddin Mahmud said that the interim government, after assuming responsibility, had designed the monetary policy in such a way where the government had to ensure supply of necessary capital despite banking sector debacles following the ouster of fascist Hasina regime.

To keep survive the feeble banking sector, he said that contractionary monetary policy was adopted as part of supplementary measures to contain inflation.

Besides, he said the government had also tried to keep the budget deficit in FY26 as less as possible precisely below 4 percent of GDP so that the government’s domestic and foreign borrowings did not increase much in the current fiscal year (FY26).

Dr Mahmud noted it became advantageous at one side for the Ministry of Planning which is that the pace of ADP implementation has to be reduced for ensuring fair project implementation side by side the size of ADP has also been reduced. 

“But, the added advantage for that is that the budget deficit can be reduced. The size of the ADP has been reduced due to rationale reasons which have also helped to contain inflation,” he added.

Citing generating more employments as the biggest problem for the country’s economy, Dr Mahmud said that inflation has been reducing while it would reduce further in the coming days.

“But, in line with this, if employments are not increased, then its benefits won’t reach to the low-income group people,” he opined. 

Apart from this, the Planning Adviser said problem also persists with the educated unemployed while solution to this is not possible overnight.

Regarding inflation, General Economics Division (GED) Member of the Planning Commission Dr Monzur Hossain said that inflation is gradually coming down and the prices of fine rice and vegetables have declined, but the price of coarse rice which is being consumed mostly by the poorer section is slightly higher.  

In June last, he said about 50 percent of the food inflation was contributed by rice while it was 40 percent in the previous month (May). Although the overall inflation is gradually coming down, the price of rice is increasing while the concerned government agencies should unearth the matter.

The GED member said that concerned government entities should deliver their best to enforce market monitoring in a bid to keep stable the commodity market.  

Strong political commitment is needed as to why the price of rice is increasing and strong measures are also needed from the highest level of the government and then the price of rice can be reduced. “We don’t see any clear reason for price hike of rice. The stockpile of rice is good and despite this the price of rice is increasing. The reason for this should be unearthed,” he added. 

“Unless the price of rice is reduced, then the inflation won’t decline much. Otherwise, the middle class people and the lower middle class people will suffer much,” he said.

Talking to BSS recently, former Lead Economist of the World Bank Dhaka Office, Dr Zahid Hussain said that the general point to point inflation in June last has declined year on year driven by downtrend in both food and non-food inflation rates.

“Both the food and non-food inflation rates have declined also at the urban and rural level,” he said.

The renowned economist said that the food inflation has witnessed a significant downtrend last month compared to the noon-food inflation rate.

Dr Zahid Hussain attributed three main reasons for such declining trend in both the food and non-food inflation rates which are the persisting favourable environment and nature following the flooding in August-September last year, stable exchange rate and the prudent monetary policy by the central bank which helped to contain the non-food inflation rate.

He said that the food grains production over the last few months including Boro was good while the production of seasonal fruits like mangoes, jackfruits and litchi was also better much to the relief of the consumers.

He cited that the since April this year, the general point to point inflation rate has been declining continuously while it came down below 9 percent in June after a long time.

The economist said that if the interim government could maintain its strategy for the upcoming months, then it might be possible to lower further the inflation rate.

Talking to BSS, FBCCI Administrator Md Hafizur Rahman noted that due to the far better market monitoring this time compared to the past, the shock of inflation on the common people has reduced significantly which is also a ‘good sign’.